Volume 18, Issue 6 p. 1564-1577
Ecosystem Services

Ecosystem services at risk in Italy from coastal inundation under extreme sea level scenarios up to 2050: A spatially resolved approach supporting climate change adaptation

Elisa Furlan

Elisa Furlan

Fondazione Centro-Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Lecce, Italy

Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistic, University Ca' Foscari Venice, Venice, Italy

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Diana Derepasko

Diana Derepasko

Fondazione Centro-Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Lecce, Italy

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Silvia Torresan

Silvia Torresan

Fondazione Centro-Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Lecce, Italy

Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistic, University Ca' Foscari Venice, Venice, Italy

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Hung V. Pham

Hung V. Pham

Fondazione Centro-Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Lecce, Italy

Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistic, University Ca' Foscari Venice, Venice, Italy

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Stefano Fogarin

Stefano Fogarin

Fondazione Centro-Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Lecce, Italy

Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistic, University Ca' Foscari Venice, Venice, Italy

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Andrea Critto

Corresponding Author

Andrea Critto

Fondazione Centro-Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Lecce, Italy

Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistic, University Ca' Foscari Venice, Venice, Italy

Correspondence Andrea Critto, Department of Enviromental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca' Foscari Venice, I-30170 Venice, Italy.

Email: [email protected]

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First published: 16 April 2022
Citations: 1

Abstract

According to the latest projections of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, at the end of the century, coastal zones and low-lying ecosystems will be increasingly threatened by rising global mean sea levels. In order to support integrated coastal zone management and advance the basic “source–pathway–receptor–consequence” approach focused on traditional receptors (e.g., population, infrastructure, and economy), a novel risk framework is proposed able to evaluate potential risks of loss or degradation of ecosystem services (ESs) due to projected extreme sea level scenarios in the Italian coast. Three risk scenarios for the reference period (1969–2010) and future time frame up to 2050 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are developed by integrating extreme water-level projections related to changing climate conditions, with vulnerability information about the topography, distance from coastlines, and presence of artificial protections. A risk assessment is then performed considering the potential effects of the spatial-temporal variability of inundations and land use on the supply level and spatial distribution of ESs. The results of the analysis are summarized into a spatially explicit risk index, useful to rank coastal areas more prone to ESs losses or degradation due to coastal inundation at the national scale. Overall, the Northern Adriatic coast is scored at high risk of ESs loss or degradation in the future scenario. Other small coastal strips with medium risk scores are the Eastern Puglia coast, Western Sardinia, and Tuscany's coast. The ESs Coastal Risk Index provides an easy-to-understand screening assessment that could support the prioritization of areas for coastal adaptation at the national scale. Moreover, this index allows the direct evaluation of the public value of ecosystems and supports more effective territorial planning and environmental management decisions. In particular, it could support the mainstreaming of ecosystem-based approaches (e.g., ecological engineering and green infrastructures) to mitigate the risks of climate change and extreme events while protecting ecosystems and biodiversity. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2022;18:1564–1577. © 2021 SETAC

CONFLICT OF INTEREST

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

DATA AVAILABILITY STATEMENT

The data and associated metadata that supported the findings of this study are available upon request from the corresponding author Prof. Andrea Critto ([email protected]).